Barisan Nasional (BN) is expected to repeat its strong showing in Johor at the upcoming Negeri Sembilan state election, although the contest is likely to be tighter due to the state’s distinct demographic and political landscape, according to analysts.
Fellow of the National Council of Professors, Dr Azmi Hassan said BN could improve on its current tally of 14 seats by winning an additional two or three seats, which would likely enable the coalition to form the next state government with PAS’ support.
“I think the success of Barisan Nasional in Johor will be replicated, but it won’t be a landslide victory,” he said.
He said PAS’ support for BN is expected to be more visible in Negeri Sembilan than it was in Johor, where the party’s backing was largely implicit despite not being officially declared.
Dr Azmi also predicted Pakatan Harapan (PH), particularly DAP, could lose one or two seats to MCA in straight contests between PH and BN, despite Negeri Sembilan being one of the coalition’s traditional strongholds.
Meanwhile,Universiti Teknologi Malaysia political analyst Assoc Prof Dr Mazlan Ali said the electoral dynamics in Negeri Sembilan differ from Johor due to demographic and locality factors.
He said PH continues to enjoy strong support in the rapidly urbanising western corridor stretching from Seremban to Nilai and Port Dickson, while BN, particularly UMNO, remains dominant in the rural eastern areas, including traditional villages and FELDA settlements where the influence of Adat Pepatih remains strong.
According to Dr Mazlan, electoral cooperation between BN and Perikatan Nasional (PN) would strengthen BN’s prospects by consolidating Malay votes in rural constituencies.
However, he said Bersatu’s decision to contest on its own could pose a slight challenge to the BN-PN cooperation by splitting votes in several seats.
Despite the contrasting political landscapes across the state, both analysts believe BN enters the Negeri Sembilan election with momentum, although the outcome is expected to be more closely contested than Johor due to the state’s urban-rural divide.
