OPEC+ has kept its oil output policy unchanged for October as the ongoing Iran conflict continues to disrupt crude exports through the Strait of Hormuz, limiting the producer group’s influence over the physical oil market.
The decision was made at a meeting on Sunday involving seven core OPEC+ members: Saudi Arabia, Russia, Iraq, Kuwait, Algeria, Kazakhstan and Oman.
The group said it needs to agree on new production quotas before deciding its next steps on output.
OPEC+ agreed in August to proceed with a production increase for September, completing a phased rollback of a 1.65 million-barrel-per-day supply cut first introduced in 2023. However, the group continues to produce well below its targets as the war disrupts supplies.
Rystad Energy analyst Jorge Leon said OPEC+ currently has limited influence over the physical oil market as production targets do not guarantee that barrels will actually be produced or reach consumers.
“OPEC+ currently has very limited power over the physical oil market,” said Jorge Leon of Rystad Energy. “The group can change production targets on paper, but it cannot guarantee that those barrels will be produced or actually reach the market.”
“The focus now shifts away from monthly production adjustments and towards the much more consequential debate over 2027.”
OPEC+ still has another layer of production cuts covering most members of the 21-country group until the end of 2026. Before deciding how to unwind those cuts, the group must review members’ production capacity to establish 2027 output baselines, which will form the basis for future quotas.
That review is expected to take place later this year, with OPEC+ likely to pause further output increases in the fourth quarter, according to sources previously cited by Reuters.
Sunday’s statement made no mention of output policy beyond October.
The seven countries will next meet on 4 October.
