US Job Data Surprise Boosts Hawkish Case For Fed

According to Tuesday’s Job Openings and Labor Turnover Survey (JOLTS) from the US Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS), job openings totalled 7.594 million at the end of May-26

The US labour market demonstrate resilience in May-26, as job openings edged up by +9.0K to reach 7.594m, exceeding the market consensus of 7.30m and sustaining its highest levels since mid-2024. This robust demand for labour persisted despite the supply-side headwinds, notably elevated energy and input costs due to the US-Iran conflict.

On a sectoral level, expansion was led by wholesale trade (+71K), accommodation and food services (+62K), and real estate (+40K). By region, regional contractions in the Northeast (-88K) and West (-105K) with solid gains in the Midwest and South. Concurrently, overall the labour market stabilized as monthly hires and total separations held flat at 5.2 million and 5.1 million, respectively.

MBSB noted that although the total number of voluntary quits ticked up slightly to 3.065m from an upwardly revised 3.043m in Apr-26, the headline quits rate held steady at 1.9%, marking its lowest floor since 2020. This indicates that employers are actively retaining talent and recruiting in core services.

This data it said reinforces a “higher-for-longer” rate environment, boosting the hawkish case for the US feds fund rate. With stability in the job market, policymakers may consider rate hikes to contain elevated inflation.

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